Since publishing its Steel and Metals Action Plan in March 2025, the European Commission has been weighing the imposition of export duties or other restrictions on EU exports of aluminium scrap to third countries. To address what it describes as "a serious risk of insufficient aluminium scrap available and of the EU aluminium industry becoming unviable in the mid- to long-term", the Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade issued a call for evidence shortly before Christmas.
Stakeholders have until 31 January to submit their views on potential trade measures via the Have Your Say section of the Commission’s website. At the same time, the EU body intends to assess a range of scenarios and their impact on the EU aluminium supply chain. The Commission expects to present a draft Regulation in the second quarter of the year.
Rising scrap exports and prices
In describing the political context and defining the problem to be addressed by the initiative, the Commission highlights the sharp increase in aluminium scrap exports from the EU to third countries over the past decade. According to its figures, exports in 2024 totalled 1.2 million tonnes, up 66 per cent on 2014 levels and 50 per cent higher than in 2019.
This rise is attributed largely to increasing prices and stronger demand on the global scrap market. "Certain countries apply unfair subsidies to support their metal recycling and production industries, enabling local producers to pay higher prices for scrap," the Commission states.
Aluminium scrap prices have increased by almost 80 per cent, from €1,171 per tonne in September 2019 to €2,091 per tonne in September 2025, according to the Commission. Scrap reportedly trades at 93 per cent of the LME price for ingots. "This means that converting scrap into the finished product (ingots) becomes unprofitable, as the price of aluminium ingots is based on LME prices," the Commission argues. It also points to evidence that prices for Asian aluminium scrap are higher than those in the EU for certain grades.
These price increases are squeezing margins at aluminium smelters and refiners in the EU, "which poses a risk to their economic viability", the Commission continues. The body cites figures from the EU aluminium industry indicating that European domestic production meets only 52 per cent of regional demand for the light metal. Up to 43 per cent of this demand is met through recycling of aluminium scrap. Aluminium demand within the EU is expected to rise significantly by 2050, driven by growth in sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles and aerospace.
According to the Commission, the aluminium industry is already struggling due to a lack of affordable input material. As a result, several plants have closed, investments in recycling have been postponed and recycling capacity has been curtailed. The Commission reiterates metal industry claims that around 30 companies, accounting for roughly 65 per cent of aluminium recycling capacity, are facing "challenging economic conditions".
In addition to threatening the economic survival of the EU aluminium industry, high prices for aluminium scrap combined with large export volumes threatened, were a risk to the bloc's policy objectives, the Commission says. The executive body sees the EU’s environmental objectives, competitiveness and economic security at risk, and the growing dependence on imports of bauxite and aluminium as a threat to economic security.
In early January, Emilio Braghi, executive vice-president Europe at aluminium group Novelis, warned in an interview with the British business newspaper "Financial Times" of the industry’s "ultimate decline" if the EU Commission failed to restrict aluminium scrap exports to Asia and the United States. "We have lost primary production. Now we are at risk of losing aluminium scrap," Mr Braghi said. He also cautioned that such a development would have consequences for the EU’s environmental objectives, in addition to its impact on the metals industry.
